Super Re-Match Belies a Thing or Two about Coaching

My 2011 NFL forecast was right about one thing, good coaching determines the Super Bowl. Of course, I said that Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan were my guys, let’s not forget that Coughlin and Belichek have their own say.

I believed in this strike-shortened season that coaching, quarterback play and defense were the ultimate determinates. I was right, although for most of the season we thought defense was out the window. The playoffs reminded us again that defense, red zone efficiency, and special teams are all matters of good coaching.

However, I was wrong to believe that Tarvaris Jackson could change his uniform and delivery anything different. Even with Pete Carroll at the helm of the Seahawks, they were clearly a team one quarterback away from the playoffs. The Jets? Rex’s ability to coach a team and not just a defense is still an open book.

As for the standings, I predicted that the Colts would finish last and the Broncos first. I predicted that the Ravens would finally steal the division from the Steelers. Except for two teams, I had the entire AFC Playoff picture correct.

As for the NFC West taking over as the power division, that is still a work in progress. The West finished 7-9 against the East, and if it were not for the Seahawks blowing a lead at home against Rex Grossman with 3 minutes left in the game, the two divisions would have finished 8-8 against each other. There is reason to believe that the scales will tip next year for a couple of reasons, primarily becasue two dysfunctional teams already have franchise quarterbacks in Dallas and Philly. I think the proof is in the pudding, and until those two cities go through complete re-builds, they are exactly what we see.

Washington stands to improve itself in the draft, and NY is light years beyond the rest of the division. What about the West? St Louis is obviously a team destine to improve along with the Cardinals and Kevin Kolb. SF proved they could battle with the elite in spite of Alex Smith, so here come the Seahawks.

In two seasons Pete Carroll and John Schneider have completely re-built the roster, established a smash-mouth-run-the-ball-down-your-throat offense, and a stop-the-run defense. Moreover, with three pro bowlers in their secondary, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Brandon Browner, it’s not even their fabulous defensive front that’s getting the credit. If you liked watching the 49er’s defense this year, wait until next season with Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant absolutely stuffing the line of scrimmage. Pete Carroll’s rebuilding process is done, except for one.

The talk is that Carroll will find a way to acquire Matt Flynn, who is now ready to step in and lead a team. If he does, the Seahawks instantly contend in the NFC. They already beat the Giants in New York. We know what they can do against the Saints. Harbaugh was lucky to win in both matchups against Carroll, but what if Matt Flynn is not available? Will Tannehill be the answer at 11 in the draft?

Those are questions for next month, when free agency opens and we get ourselves ready for the draft. For now, I say the Patriots win the Super Re-Match. No person in sports is as competitive as Tom Brady, and Belichek won’t lose twice to the same team. I say this one will go to the offense on both sides, so take the over.

Don’t Say I didn’t Tell You

2011 marks the beginning of a shift in power in the NFC from the East to the West. With the two divisions squaring up head to head this season I predict the West will carry a better than .500 record against the fabled East. Now that teams like NY and Dallas are falling on hard times like their brethren Redskins, it’s easy to see why so many people are picking the Eagles to win the East. And although I side with them, don’t expect the over hyped Eagles to post better than a 9 win season, they are definitely a one and done in the playoffs. We’ll get our first look at East vs. West this Sunday when Philadelphia drops their opener on the road in St Louis.

NFC East

• Eagles
• Cowboys
• Giants
• Redskins

NFC North

• Packers
• Lions
• Vikings
• Bears

NFC South

• Buccaneers
• Falcons
• Saints
• Panthers

NFC West

• Seahawks
• Rams
• Cardinals
• 49er’s

NFC Wild Card

• Rams
• Falcons

NFC First Round Bye

• Seahawks
• Packers

AFC East

• Jets
• Patriots
• Dolphins
• Bills

AFC North

• Ravens
• Steelers
• Browns
• Bengals

AFC South

• Titans
• Texans
• Jaguars
• Colts

AFC West

• Broncos
• Chargers
• Chiefs
• Raiders

AFC Wild Card

• Patriots
• Chargers

AFC First Round Bye

• Jets
• Ravens

SuperBowl XLVI

Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Jets

Why did I pick these two teams to win conference championships? First is the coaching. More than any other active coach with the possible exception of Bill Belichek, Rex Ryan and Pete Carroll are better than anyone is at getting their players to buy in and believe. With Seattle’s new offensive line talent I predict a lot of inconsistent play early like we’ve seen in the preseason, but as they grow together they’ll bond and become one, giving Jackson time to prove he’s an elite quarterback like the Vikings thought he was, all while Marshawn Lynch goes Beast Mode over the NFC.

Olivo Lays the Smack Down on Kouzmanoff

Adam Kennedy Hitting .333

For only the third time this season, The Seattle Mariners get back to back wins and it comes on the shoulders of the first two horses of the Apocalypse. Michael Pineda and Felix Hernandez are pouring concrete right now; laying the foundation for the best one-two punch in all of baseball. Earning the Cy Young with only 13 wins last year, Felix has already established himself as the best pitcher in the American League. Now Pineda emerges as the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year with April waning.

Of all pitchers in the American League that have thrown a minimum of 25 innings, Pineda ranks 4^th in ERA at 1.78. He has 21 strike outs against 9 walks in his 4 starts, that is one less K than AJ Burnett, and two less than C.C. Sabathia. Tall cotton indeed.

Likewise, Felix ranks 4^th in the AL with 31 K’s, and is on a sure path to defend his Cy Young. It looks as if Wedge will bump Felix up during this next off day, but regardless of whether they are 1-2, 1-3, or 1-4, in the rotation, these two horsemen are giving Mariner fans something to cheer about at a time when not much else is bringing people to the ball park.

 Compost Giveaway Latest of Marketing Disasters

Chris Ray Giving Away Runs: Inherited and Earned

From chest waxing to manure, the 2011 Seattle Mariners are quite possibly the worst run franchise in sports. Their campaigns seem intent on creating an environment of torture for the fans, and it is no wonder that they are on pace to set new lows for both attendance and wins.

Mariner President Howard Lincoln is so out of touch with the world around him, he lives in a plastic bubble insulating him from the failure that he’s created. Lincoln has taken one of the cherry picks in sports, the feel good story of the 90’s, and completely let it unravel under his watch. His tenure is now so bad that I wonder if he hired Jackie Z as General Manager with the purpose of completely destroying any hope for the future. Absolutely brutal.

It is time for Lincoln to retire, step aside or be abducted by aliens, anything. And when you go Howard, please leave Seattle, we are tired of you here and want you to take up residence somewhere else, the bridge is completely torched. From this day forward, your days atop the Mariners are numbered, though we don’t have any clue who can fire you. So we ask you simply to step down, move on, enjoy your retirement in some place sunny, maybe one day we’ll remember that you helped save our team, maybe we’ll remember the good days from two decades ago, but for now your franchise is in ruins.

Bradley Swats Teams First Triple

Michael Pineda tossed six easy innings against the best hitting club in the American League. He has now faced three good hitting teams and emerges with the only winning record at 2-1 in the starting rotation, and a 2.33 ERA. Although Manager Eric Wedge is keeping a tight leash on his pitch count, Pineda with his 19.1 innings pitched, has the second most behind Felix who has one more start under his belt.

In watching his outings, it is interesting to see how many batters he starts out with an 0-2 count. His pitch count per inning stays low, and if his start is any indication of how his career will evolve, Pineda looks like a workhorse in the making. It will be interesting to see how far we are into the season before he collects his first complete game.

The offense however, seems to score three runs per game not matter who’s pitching. Yesterday though we saw them do it with the bats rather than patience. For the first time this season, the M’s did not get a free pass. They have led the AL in walks all season and emerge from the weekend tied for first in this stat, but showed some life with seven hits including the first triple of the season.

Although we are apt to credit Wedge for lighting a fire under his team, three runs is hardly a response, and Pineda’s pitching is the real reason they won. Shutting down the opponent is always the M’s best chance to win unless something changes. Anyone of us would probably go crazy in Wedge’s position; I wonder if he really knew what he was signing up for when he took this job. All the yelling in the world won’t make this offense any better, if Wedge really wants some results, he might storm into Howard Lincoln’s office and give management the same talk.

4.33 ERA, .282 AVG, 13 ER, 29 H, 23 K, 7 BB

Now that King Felix is on top of the hill, everybody wants to knock him off, and his 1-2 record shows it.  Although his walk to strike out ratio matches career totals, it is evident that  teams are coming out swinging against him. The career batting average against  Felix is a stingy .244, and we can see that has come up substantially to open  2011 at .282. As such, his ERA has jumped from 3.22 to 4.33.

Unless Felix does something to change his approach, this trend will continue. Batters are comfortable at the plate against him, because they know he’ll be throwing strikes so they have no fear of letting the bats fly. To change this trend, he’s going to need to re-establish his inside presence, even if it means putting people on their ass. As the leader of this team, the attitude adjustment needs to start with Felix, as long as he stays soft in the zone, so to will this team stay soft.

Olivo Earns the Golden Sombrero

The Mariners now rank 13th out of 14 AL teams in ERA. This used to be the M’s Holy Grail, the stat that kept them alive in every game. This season the pitching staff has been run over too many times. A three run deficit to most clubs is just another day at the ballpark and a chance for excitement, but for the M’s, it is nearly a death sentence.

We’ve talked at length about the need to build a team with balance, and it all starts at the plate. For now the patience is paying off in runs, the M’s are middle of the pack now with 49, but the damage to the psyche of the pitching staff may not be reversible. On April 16, 2011, it feels like it’s already too late, and that is a very sad thing indeed.

Jack Zduriencik Promises more Suffering Ahead

It is often revealing to read between the lines on a team’s advertising campaign, and this year’s Seattle Mariners is no exception. Jackie Z pleads with fans not to give up hope as a fan gets a chest wax in the background. What disturbing imagery this is, not just the chest wax, but Z pointing his finger at us like an elementary school principal. Almost ordering us to get in line and support him.

The tone of his voice is apologetic, but the expression on his face is angry, and with his gestures, we’re left to believe that he intends for us to suffer a very long time. Did we as Mariner fans do something to disrespect ownership? If not, why then would they punish us with another year of Jackie Z? As fans, we’ve been faithful, very faithful. In ten years of losing, it has only been these last few that attendance has gone in the tank, but merchandising is still as strong as ever. I just can’t help but feel that we’ve done something wrong and now we’re being scolded for it.

I’m not the only one. Even with Felix and Michael Pineda scheduled to pitch against the Blue Jays, the total combined gate for all three games was a paltry 40968. That is still six thousand seats short of a sellout. How many games do the Mariners need to play to fill the stadium once?

Fans dig the long ball, and until this team has an offense, they won’t be back anytime soon. But this isn’t new information to anyone, we knew this all along. So why would Jackie Z do anything other than build an offense if that’s all it takes to build a winner?

When Z inherited this team, the pitching was great, and the offense was horrible. Hitters were complaining of the backdrop, while visiting teams had no complaints. There was a long litany of excuses. So all Z needed to do, was get some bats, that’s all. It seems clear now that either he lacks the ability to attract top-tier offensive talent to his program, or has no inclination. In either case, he is the wrong guy for the job. From the grumblings around town, I don’t think many fans are willing to accept Z’s torture. As our wet spring turns slowly into summer, people will find better things to do, and forget their team in Teal. And Jackie Z will show us that three years is no fluke, no matter how good the pitching staff, he’ll always be a loser.

Saunders Coming of Age

Cust Batting 7 of 40, .175AVG, 0HR, Leads Team with 14K’s

Vargas Pitches Beautifully in No Decision

Chris Ray Blows Game and Pen’s 17 Inning Scoreless Streak

Whom should the M’s sit when Gutierrez comes off the DL? When the season  started, most bets were on either Langerhans or Saunders. However, with the second road trip getting started, we can see that DH Jack Cust should be the odd man out.

Let’s give credit where credit is due first, as losing Cust may mean losing him for good. He’s out of options and probably won’t accept an assignment to Triple A. But if he does go, Cust may be remembered as the man that helped turn this offense around. He brought along with him patience, and that patience has spread like a good habit down this batting order. Cust has donated eight walks to the cause helping the M’s lead the league in this very important stat.

Take that a step further, if the idea behind any offense is to wear down the other teams pitching staff, than the M’s lead all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance right now at 4.11. Rarely have the M’s ranked well over the past decade in these stats. Hitting Coach Chris Chambliss and Manager Eric Wedge deserve the credit for this, but having a teammate like Cust walk the walk goes a long way toward reinforcing the habit.

Yet to keep his spot on the roster, Cust needs to show more. He’s a Designated Hitter, and this means he needs to hit. He makes no other contribution to the team on the field, so it needs to be by his bat. With a four game series starting today in Kansas City, this is the perfect opportunity to let the ball fly and show Wedge why he demands a daily spot in the lineup.

13 1/3, 11K, 3BB, 4ER, 0HR, .204AVG, 2.70ERA, 1-1

Bullpen Riding 16+ Inning Shut-Out Streak

Olivo Saves Pineda’s Win with a Bust to the Chops

With Corey Patterson tagging from third, Pineda watched from the dugout as Smoak drilled a laser to Olivo at the plate in time to punish Patterson with a bruising tag and complete the double play. In a beautiful example of the brute strength that Olivo brings to the position, the M’s get out of the eighth inning and put Brandon League in position to save Pineda’s home debut.

And what a debut. Finally putting all the early season drama behind them, the Mariner’s played a clean game on both sides of the ball, and Pineda made those seven scoreless innings look easy. He clearly lost a step as he came out to start the eighth, but until that point, the Jays could only squawk as he picked them off the fence posts one by one.

Vargas returns to the hill in time for lunch today and a chance to not only redeem the home opener, but also give the M’s their first sweep of the season. In doing so, he reminds us of how close this team is to contending. With Gutierrez’ return imminent, and Ackley’s pending call up in June, it’s time to rack up some wins now and keep on the heels of that Texas juggernaut.